经济新闻
一财调查显示，在两会释放强劲信号的背景下，首席经济学家对中国经济持乐观态度 2026-03-10
A gauge of sentiment in China’s economy compiled by Yicai remained above the boom-bust line for the eighth straight month in March, as chief economists believe the Two Sessions, China’s annual policy-setting meetings, sent a strong signal that macroeconomic policies will be more proactive.
The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.5 for this month, compared with 50.2 in February and 50.3 in January, according to a survey of 13 leading China-based chief economists. A reading above 50 indicates optimism.
Setting the economic growth target for this year at 4.5 percent to 5 percent not only reflects a prudent attitude in the context of a complex and volatile external environment and an accelerating domestic structural transformation, but also reserves policy space for adjusting the structure and preventing risks, said Cheng Shi, chief economist at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China International.
In the short term, the CNY1.3 trillion (USD188 billion) ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, CNY800 billion (USD115.7 billion) policy-based financial tools, and CNY100 billion fiscal and financial collaborative funds to boost domestic demand announced at the Two Sessions are expected to activate the potential for effective investment and consumption, said Cai Wei, chief economist at Klynveld Peat Marwick Goerdeler China Advisory.
In the medium and long term, the Artificial Intelligence Plus initiative, the promotion of new industrialization, and the strategic layout of future industries deployed at the Two Sessions will drive the optimization and upgrading of the economic structure, Cai added.
The global economy will continue to grow at a slow pace this year, with trade protectionism and geopolitical risks remaining the main uncertainties, said Wang Han, chief economist at Industrial Securities.
China’s economic work will focus on the recovery of domestic demand and structural optimization, he noted, adding that the gross domestic product growth target will be around 5 percent this year, with development relying more on improving consumption and stabilizing investment.
The consumer price index rose 1.3 percent in February from a year earlier, faster than the average 1 percent predicted by economists, mainly because of the Chinese New Year holiday. Meanwhile, the producer price index fell 0.9 percent, compared with an average prediction of 1.2 percent by the economists.
Retail sales of consumer goods likely rose 2.4 percent in January and February from a year earlier, versus a 0.9 percent increase in December, per the economists. The consumption promotion activities and trade-in policies implemented this year accelerated the release of consumers’ demand, presenting a growth trend in the consumer market, said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.
The economists’ average forecast for industrial value added growth for the first two months of the year was 5.3 percent, slightly higher than the 5.2 percent increase in December. Fixed asset investment growth is expected to have fallen 3.2 percent in the period, compared with a decline of 3.8 percent in 2025.
Fixed asset investment has typically shown a feature of high growth in the first half and low growth in the second half in recent years, so it is expected to rebound early this year, said Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank.
Trade surplus was likely USD157.7 billion in the two months ended Feb. 28, according to the economists. Their average forecasts for imports and exports growth were 5.1 percent and 5.4 percent, respectively, compared with 4.4 percent and 5.2 percent in December.
High-frequency data from ports indicate that exports may continue to rise at a relatively fast pace this year, Lu noted, adding that the year-on-year growth of cargo and container throughput at Chinese ports was 9.3 percent and 13 percent, respectively, as of Feb. 22.
The central parity rate of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar will be 6.9 at the end of this month and 6.8 at the end of this year, the economists predicted. The yuan has been appreciating steadily against the US dollar this year, creating the foundation and conditions for a moderate appreciation in the coming period, said Lian Ping, chief economist at the Guangkai Chief Industry Research Institute.
Source: Yicai Global
