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瑞银和摩根士丹利等外资银行对中国股市持乐观态度 2026-05-13
Foreign financial institutions, including UBS Group and Morgan Stanley, have sounded positive notes on Chinese stocks after mainland equity markets showed stronger-than-expected resilience this year even in the face of war in the Middle East and the repeated knocks sentiment has taken from global trade and tariff disputes.
China’s stock markets are entering a new phase marked by earnings recovery and improving liquidity, according to the latest strategy outlooks from several foreign banks. At the same time, new economy themes such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and advanced manufacturing are reshaping global investors’ thinking on Chinese assets.
Mainland markets have continued to strengthen this month, with the Shanghai Composite Index climbing to an 11-year high above 4,200 points. China’s economy also grew 5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, beating expectations, while the Chinese currency has remained generally stable.
China’s economic structure makes it less vulnerable to energy price shocks, said Meng Lei, China equity strategist at UBS Securities. In power generation in particular, China relies on oil and gas for only about 3 percent of its needs, far below the global average of nearly 20 percent, she noted.
Coal and new energy remain the main sources of electricity supply in China, giving the country a stronger buffer when international crude oil prices fluctuate sharply, Meng said.
"We are not saying that China is not affected. The country remains the world's largest oil importer," Meng pointed out. "But from the perspective of relative comparison, the Chinese economy is not highly sensitive to fluctuations in oil and gas prices."
Overseas investors also view the stability of China’s macroeconomic policies as an important support. Inflation remains broadly moderate, monetary policy still has room for adjustment, and fiscal policy continues to provide support.
Fang Dongming, head of China in UBS’ global financial markets division, said that during roadshows in North America and Europe this year, he clearly sensed growing interest in the Chinese market from global sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, hedge funds, and other long-term investors.
"Against the backdrop of increasing global uncertainties, the risk-resistance capacity and low correlation advantages of Chinese assets have drawn growing attention," Fang said. "Many institutional investors even regard Chinese assets as a safe haven among global risk assets."
This year, foreign financial institutions have clearly shifted focus from the “China recovery trade” to AI and the upgrading of the tech sector. In a new report, Morgan Stanley said China’s AI industry is moving from a phase of "catching up with technology" to one of "realizing commercial value.”
The report said China’s semiconductor self-sufficiency is likely to rise to 86 percent in 2030 from 41 percent last year, which would further reduce the cost of deploying AI and strengthen supply-chain resilience. It also said AI could lift China’s total factor productivity by about 3 percentage points over the next decade and raise its gross domestic product by about 3.5 points by 2035 compared with a scenario in which AI is not adopted.
Source: Yicai Global
