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一财分析双十一购买趋势分析中国消费 - 2023年11月16日
Yicai puts double 11 under the microscope to gain insight into consumption in China
Double 11, the biggest annual shopping event in China, is closely watched by analysts, businesses, and economists for insights into Chinese consumption patterns, economic trends, and the overall health of the retail sector.
Following this year’s event, Yicai looked at a number of consumer sectors, including liquor, mobile phones, cosmetics, and catering, to glean insights into China’s consumption outlook and trends.
Mid-Range Liquor Sales Beat Cheap Baijiu
Sales of alcoholic beverages rose significantly over Double 11, with JD.Com’s turnover jumping 32 percent from a year earlier. Among the categories, baijiu sales surged 36 percent during the festival period of Oct. 23 to Nov. 11, according to the online retail giant’s data.
Alibaba Group Holding's Tmall online retail platform also released data for the beverage sector. It showed that as of Nov. 10 Tmall had e-commerce livestream turnover in excess of CNY1.8 billion (USD248.6 million), marking a more than seven-fold annual increase.
Livestreamers and social media influencers on Alibaba's Taobao marketplace also told Yicai that liquor sales had been better than expected and had grown sharply.
But low-end liquor sold poorly. Baijiu priced as cheaply as CNY9.9 (USD1.40) and CNY29.9 (USD4.10) a bottle was not in high demand, according to a salesperson at a national liquor merchant. Moreover, sales of expensive baijiu produced by the well-known brands Wuliangye Yibin and Kweichow Moutai were little affected by the shopping carnival. The best-selling products were priced at between CNY100 (USD13.80) and CNY300 (USD41.40).
Liquor vendors believe the feedback from e-commerce retailers is consistent with the overall market situation this year. Due to lower-than-expected consumer spending on alcoholic beverages, the industry is going through a noticeable adjustment, but there is still some demand for mainstream consumer products.
The liquor industry will have slow and rational growth this year, and producers are focusing on mid-range products priced at between CNY100 and CNY300, which are already showing signs of emerging from the downturn, according to Gan Quan, deputy secretary-general of the China Alcoholic Drinks Association.
This year's Double 11 revealed a growing differentiation between high-end premium liquors and mass-market products. Most leading liquor brands did not offer significant discounts during Double 11, with most applied to non-premium and channel-specific custom products.
Apple Drops Prices as Phone Replacement Time Lengthens to Record
Young consumers who used to change their Apple and Huawei smartphones every year have extended the replacement cycle to more than three years, a record length of time, according to the findings of a survey conducted by Yicai. Possibly in response to this shift, the US tech giant began lowering online prices at the start of this month.
Apple cut the prices of the iPhone 15 series sold through its flagship stores on JD.Com, Tmall, and elsewhere. With the help of coupons, users could buy some of its products at a CNY700 to CNY800 (USD97 to USD111) discount compared with their launch price. Based on the latest figures, Apple did not lose much high-end market share over Double 11.
During the shopping event, 48 percent of consumers surveyed by Yicai did not buy 3C (computer, communication, and consumer) electronic devices, citing their limited budgets.
“Seeing the various configurations of the new Apple models now, there is not much novelty anymore,” one survey participant said. “Its high-end mobile phones costs more than CNY10,000 (USD1,381), so it feels a bit extravagant to change them every year.”
The latest handset models have similar functions, and as smartphones have large internal storage, smooth operating systems, and durable batteries, there is little reason to upgrade them unless the screen is damaged, the person added.
Huawei did not promote its Mate 60 series for Double 11 due to a supply shortage. The Shenzhen-based firm instead listed products from its Nova 11 SE series, which have a fourth-generation chip, on the promotional page of its flagship store on JD.Com.
Based on the Double 11 reports from other mobile phone producers, the main competition was concentrated in the price range below CNY6,000 (USD829). The Xiaomi 14 series ranked first on Tmall's best-selling handsets list and topped the sales of domestic phones priced above CNY4,000, according to the Beijing-based firm.
Foldable phones were also a key segment. Oppo's Find N3 Flip was the best-selling foldable smartphone on Tmall and Pinduoduo, while its Find N3 ranked first on Douyin, China's version of TikTok, according to the online retailer.
Honor said its foldable phones were No. 1 in the category for Double 11 sales, with its Magic Vs2 being the top-selling foldable handset. and MagicVs2 won the Double Eleven championship in folding screen single product sales.
The Rise of Chinese Beauty Brands
Chinese beauty products have not sold as well in the past two years as in previous years due to increasingly intense competition, industry insiders told Yicai.
During Double 11, the gross merchandise volume of beauty and personal care products fell 4.3 percent from the same period of last year to CNY78.6 billion (USD10.8 billion), according to Big Data solutions provider Syntun.
But Chinese beauty brands performed better than in previous years, with Proya Cosmetics becoming the second bestseller on Tmall after France’s L'Oréal. Before, very few Chinese labels would make the top 10, and L'Oréal, Estee Lauder, and Shiseido dominated the rankings.
Proya would rank first if the range of products was taken into consideration. Its namesake flagship brand took the beauty sector’s top spot on Tmall and Douyin, cementing the leading position of Chinese brands.
Another Chinese brand Winona also made the top 10 this year and Chando, Amiro, and Kefumei were in the top 20. Skincare brand Forest Cabin sold over CNY100 million (USD13.8 million) worth of goods during the festival, a new high.
Chinese cosmetics makers were also bestsellers on Douyin and Kuaishou. Florasis, which was sales champion on Tmall last year, dropped to ninth place on the Tmall rankings. Proya’s Timage ranked second, and MGP took 11th place.
Young Drive Consumer Innovation
Attracting young consumers and tapping into the potential of existing customers were the focus of promotions for mainstream businesses over Double 11.
Sales at hotpot restaurant chain Haidilao jumped more than 20 percent from a year ago. A big target group was people aged between 18 and 35, and most of the diners were women, according to data from Tmall.
On the basis of price concessions, Haidilao employs various methods to appeal to young consumers, such as cooking hotpot dishes and fast foods from its live broadcast studio. Novel and appealing dishes such as chicken and pork tripe as well as frog hotpot make it easier to entice consumers into placing quick orders.
Haier Smart Home, a maker of smart fridges and washing machines, said that transactions of members rose 27 percent, and the post-1995 generation accounted for 28 percent of users in the leader brand category.
Yicai found a significant divergence in the consumption patterns of young consumers. For example, some want to buy high-end products and luxury goods, but considering factors such as price, frequency of use, and the environment, an increasing number seek out secondhand goods.
Yicai learned from Hongbulin, also known as used luxury goods platform Plum, that 70 percent of its users are both buyers and sellers. During Double 11, the number of consigned goods surged 81 percent, the number of participating merchants jumped 39 percent, and each item cost 20 percent more on average.
Among travel products, flexible “equity flight passes” were popular over the shopping festival. They allow buyers to book flights early at favorable prices and get a refund if they end up not going. Alibaba’s Fliggy online travel platform sold over 400,000.
These passes offer certainty and convenience and are value for money, Qi Qi, expert at the China Civil Aviation High-quality Development Research Center, told Yicai.
While airlines are stimulating travel demand and expanding their sales, they are refining their route management to improve operational planning, leaving more room for improving revenue, Qi added.
Rational Consumption and Upgrading Coexist as Grading Emerges
Opinion is divided on whether China is experiencing a consumption downgrade. But according to Yicai’s findings, the conditions for rational consumption, which focuses on maximizing benefits, and for consumption upgrade are not mutually exclusive and they do coexist. So describing the situation in terms of consumer grading provides a more accurate description.
Consumer grading have become more evident, insiders told Yicai. With better living standards and greater health awareness, sales of some niche, personalized, and mid-to-high products are growing. Popular products continue to sell well at full price, while consumers also show a clear preference for discounted categories and individual items.
Adidas said that judging by the overall performance of Double 11, consumers have become more rational, with the characteristics of consumer grading becoming more notable. The German sportswear giant's hit products, such as Samba shoes, remained in high demand even at full cost, while at the same time, more customers favored discounted articles.
The general performance of Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings' platform was up 22 percent during Double 11, according to the edible oil and grain supplier’s report. Sales of mid-to-high priced rice products climbed, and reasonably priced mass-market items that meet the needs of mainstream consumers also did well, resulting in a diverse consumer demand structure.
Lowest Price Is Still the Trump Card
The key factor in retail competition is providing consumers with high-quality and affordable products, and participants in this year’s Double 11 scrambled to cut prices.
The iPhone 15, VGN-branded keyboards, and microphones from karaoke app Chang Ba sold out soon after they became available on JD.Com, the manager of its procurement and sales live broadcast studio told Yicai.
These results were achieved through low pricing, JD.Com noted. Low prices on JD.Com are genuine low prices that can promote consumption and stimulate vitality, the e-commerce giant said, adding that low prices are achieved by constantly squeezing inflated costs from supply chains.
This year, Dingdong Maicai joined in Double 11 for the first time. The online grocer began an 11-day promotional campaign in early November. Some milk and fruit prices were halved, so consumers rushed to buy them, Dingdong said.
Structural Growth Replaces Broad Growth
Online sales of home appliances fell between Oct. 31 and Nov. 11 from a year earlier, according to data from key companies and stores, Peng Yu, chief operating officer at Beijing Zitan Dongjian Data, told Yicai.
“Our product structure was optimized, but overall sales did fall from the same period last year, and the decline wasn’t small,” the manager of a color television maker said.
Substantial overall growth in China’s home appliance industry is unlikely this year, said Li Xiaoxiong, general manager at Hamilton Beach China's marketing center. Last year's Double 11 took place during Covid, when people were buying all kinds of goods, anything they could think of, Li noted.
During this year's event, opportunities for structural growth were more prominent in the home appliance industry, thanks to product upgrades, trending categories, and package bundles.
Haier Smart Home sold 63 percent more Haier-branded white goods in bundles and 35 percent more Casarte-branded ones over Double 11 compared with last year, according to the industry titan. Sub-zero refrigerators and washer-dryer combos were also very popular.
Floor scrubbers, washer-dryers, sub-zero fridges, and other trending products had an over 120 percent sales increase during the shopping festival from a year ago, rival Midea Group said.
Source: Yicai Global
