中国发生债务危机概率小 - 2016年08月18日

AFTER reviewing the recent developments around the debt issue, we have not changed our view that China can still avoid a systematic crisis in the near term, as the issue remains largely a domestic problem and in the state sector.

The composition of China's debt issues is largely within the country, unlike typical cases in emerging markets. Its external balance sheet still looks relatively resilient as China continues to run current account surpluses. China has also been building up net foreign assets over the last decade, and is one of the largest net lenders in the world and domestic savings remain high enough to fund investments.

In addition, the situation in the domestic markets still looks manageable. In fact, the borrowers have been largely in the state sector, directly or indirectly, through various government entities or state-owned enterprises. The lenders are also mainly state-linked, with banks (state dominant) making loans, holding bonds or channelling a big part of shadow activities.