第一财经调查显示，首席经济学家连续第七个月对中国经济持乐观态度 - 2026-02-10
A gauge of sentiment in China's economy compiled by Yicai remained above the boom-bust line for the seventh straight month in February despite a slight dip, with a series of growth stabilization measures the government introduced at the end of last year gradually taking effect.
The Yicai Chief Economists Confidence Index came in at 50.2 for this month, according to the findings of a survey of 13 leading China-based chief economists. The index was 50.3 in January and 50 in December.
With continued policy support, economic growth momentum will likely accelerate over the following months, Cai Wei, chief economist at KPMG China Advisory, told Yicai. Close attention can be paid to the intensity of fiscal policies, the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, and the actual impact of consumption stimulus policies on the economy in the short term, Cai added.
Since the start of this year, policies to expand domestic demand have been actively implemented, with a clear intention to take early action, Cai pointed out. This included CNY500 billion (USD72.3 billion) in policy-based financial instruments and CNY500 billion in unused local special bond projects, Cai said.
Along with the densely introduced real estate and fiscal financial support policies since the start of the year, these measures are likely to support investment and consumption activities, Cai stressed.
In addition, the photovoltaic, battery, and other sectors will face adjustments to export value-added tax refund policies in the second and third quarters, so relevant companies may concentrate their exports this quarter to avoid the costs associated with policy adjustments, Cai noted, adding that this is expected to lift economic growth momentum at the beginning of the year.
To achieve China's vision of "doubling the economic output and per-capita income by 2035," while considering the country's economic growth rates over the past three years along with future economic policy directions, the National People's Congress in March will likely set the 2026 gross domestic product growth target at around 5 percent, the deficit-to-GDP ratio target at about 4 percent, and the consumer price index increase target at about 2 percent, according to the economists.
The contribution of consumer spending to GDP growth will likely rise to 55 percent this year, driving GDP growth by around 2.75 percentage points for the year, said Lian Ping, dean of the research institute jointly established by Guangzhou Development District Holding Group and the China Chief Economist Forum. The contribution of investment to GDP is expected to reach 25 percent, driving GDP growth by about 1.25 points, while the contribution of net exports of goods and services to GDP will likely be 20 percent, driving GDP growth by around 1 point, Lian noted.
Maintaining the deficit-to-GDP ratio at around 4 percent reflects strong support for economic recovery and also provides room for fiscal sustainability, noted Cheng Shi, chief economist at Industrial and Commercial Bank of China International.
China's CPI has rebounded year over year since the end of 2025, reflecting a gradual recovery in demand, Cheng pointed out. So setting the CPI target at 2 percent this year will help economic policies continue to focus on expanding domestic demand and promote a more sustainable recovery of prices within a moderate range, Cheng added.
The likelihood of a reduction in the loan prime rate and the reserve requirement ratio for large financial institutions this month is low, the economist said. However, China's central bank may still consider cutting the RRR or interest rates at an appropriate time later this year, they pointed out.
Source: Yicai Global
