疫情没有改变发展中国家整体上升趋势 - 2020-08-17

Author: Zhang Lili
The COVID-19 pandemic has been raging globally in the past six months. In light of the virus, countries have taken on different policies and in turn generated various results, which has led to the fast-evolving international relations pattern. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, international relations scholars have made the statement that "Developing countries will largely maintain upward growth trajectory in the 21st century." How did the pandemic impact this judgment? Let's first take a look at the overall performance of developing countries when confronting the contagion.
First of all, preventive measures have been taken appropriately in developing countries. Generally speaking, developed countries with affluent and highly developed civil societies should have performed better at withstanding the sudden shock. However, it’s evident that many developing countries have done a far better job. For example, African countries have taken the issue seriously and responded with relevant policies by creating a number of cost-effective preventive methods. The number of confirmed cases there is the lowest recorded in all continents (except Oceania). In terms of confirmed cases and death toll, economic damage, as well as social stability, most developing countries have outperformed their developed peers.
In terms of economic resilience, GDP of the United States fell 32.9 percent in the second quarter. Economy in the Eurozone shrank 12.1 percent, and that of the European Union dropped 11.9 percent. Meanwhile, the average global economy declined 9 percent, indicating a relatively slower contraction recorded across developing countries. The main reason is that most developing countries have stressed the importance of epidemic prevention and control and have adopted serious and scientific measures. These have effectively controlled the spread of the virus, demonstrating these countries’ abilities to respond to crises.
Second, the late-mover advantage of developing countries is persistent. When coping with the pandemic, most developing countries can choose to adopt a governance mode that fits their respective future development in a bid to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, eliminating internal contradictions and enhancing the welfare system. They can also learn lessons from the experience of developed nations. In addition, why has the pandemic exerted different economic impacts on different countries? In developing countries, manufacturing and agriculture sectors account for a higher proportion in the economy, while the service industry claims a relatively lower share. Yet, the service sector contributes to most of the economy in Western developed countries. COVID-19 has dealt a heavy blow to the service sector, especially those high-end ones. This also provides an explanation to the significant economic losses incurred in developed countries and less losses in developing countries. In addition, the relatively younger population and faster economic growth pace remain key elements in the late-mover advantage.
Another noteworthy phenomenon is that developing countries are more inclined to unite and cooperate to support multilateralism and build a shared community for mankind. During the pandemic, many developing countries have worked in solidarity and supported each other. When China faced the sudden outbreak, many developing countries immediately offered valuable support. When China took the lead in controlling the spread of the virus and resumed economic activities, it has extended assistance to more than 100 countries over the course of six months. Moreover, developing countries have firmly upheld the international multilateral system, demonstrating their common vision of building a community and riding the international development trend.
 As the world's largest developing country, China has excelled in its performance to fight against the COVID-19. Facing the outbreak, the Chinese government has adopted scientific, accurate, and efficient prevention measures by adhering to the principle of “People first; Life first”. China has resumed work and production after just two months of large-scale grappling with the epidemic, and it has spared no efforts to share its experience in time with the World Health Organization and others in need. The Chinese economy became the bright spot globally by expanding 3.2 percent in the second quarter. China's long-term upward momentum remains unchanged and will continue to be the backbone of the overall rise of developing countries.
(The author is a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University)