中国经济将继续成为世界经济的“火车头” - 2021-07-05
“Whether from the supply side or demand side, China’s economic recovery will continue.” This is the expectation from the economist interviewed by Bloomberg News recently, and has been confirmed by China’s official national economic data in May released on June 16.
China’s industrial production has increased steadily, the service industry has grown steadily and moderately, market sales have recovered continuously, fixed asset investment has rebounded steadily, imports and exports have maintained rapid growth... In May, China’s economy continued the steady recovery since this year. As the Russian Gazette recently commented, China would be a “reliable locomotive” leading the world economic recovery.
In terms of the supply side, many positive factors in China’s economy are accumulating. For example, in May, the total added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased by 8.8% year on year, with an average two-year growth of 6.6%. It’s worth mentioning that the added value of the high-tech manufacturing industry rose by 17.5% year on year, with an average two-year growth of 13.1%. The output of new energy vehicles in May this year surged by 166.3% year on year. It’s obvious that the rapid growth of China’s high-tech manufacturing industry has brought more optimistic expectations for the recovery of the manufacturing industry. Meanwhile, the steady shift to high-quality development in the industry will enhance the sustainability of China’s overall economic recovery.
In terms of the demand side, there is also much good news. During the Labor Day holiday this year, 230 million domestic tourist trips were made, and tourism revenue exceeded RMB100 billion. The numbers of collected and delivered packages both exceeded 1 billion. Driven by consumer demand during the holiday, business activity index in railway transportation, air transportation and hospitality industries exceeded 65% for two consecutive months, and that in the retail, catering, culture, sports and entertainment industries stayed within the relatively high expansion range of 58% and above.
Moreover, the total retail sales of consumer goods that generally reflects the consumer market situation reached RMB3,594.5 billion in May, an increase of 12.4% year on year, with an average two-year increase of 4.5%. Since consumption has contributed 60% to China’s economic growth in recent years, the recovery of the consumer market is of great significance to China’s economic recovery. Last week, the World Bank revised up its forecast for China’s economic growth this year from 7.9% to 8.5%. One of the main reasons for this is that China’s economic recovery has gradually expanded from public investment to consumption.
More importantly, China has effectively ensured people’s basic living needs are met while achieving steady economic recovery. In May, the surveyed unemployment rate in urban areas of China was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from April and a year-on-year decrease of 0.9 percentage point. Employment is pivotal to people’s well-being. There are hard-won results made by China amidst the severe pandemic situation and weak economic recovery worldwide.
This is closely related to the painstaking efforts of the Chinese government, enterprises and people. Outsiders notice that since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, China has maintained continuity, stability and sustainability of macroeconomic policies, and tried every means to help enterprises solve difficulties. Meanwhile, it has vigorously promoted reform and innovation to accelerate the release of potential of domestic demand and smooth economic circulations. These measures have laid a solid foundation for keeping the economy operating within a reasonable range and achieving high-quality development.
Currently, there still are destabilizing factors and uncertainties in global pandemic prevention and control and economic recovery, and the foundation for sustained economic recovery in China needs to be consolidated. However, as favorable conditions continue to build up, China’s economy is expected to recover steadily and continuously, and its position as the “locomotive” for global economy will continue to be consolidated. In fact, the World Bank predicted in its latest report that China’s economy will contribute more than a quarter to global economic growth in 2021.
