Recent lockdown management in Shanghai has caused inconvenience to citizens’ life and work. After reading some information circulated on the Internet, some people have raised doubt on China’s overall "dynamic zero-COVID" policy, arguing that current restrictions should be relaxed to achieve “co-existence” with the Omicron variant. Regarding this issue, Associate Professor Xu Gang of the School of Public Health of Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine has put forward his own views.

At this stage, China should still adhere to the "dynamic zero-COVID" policy, which remains the best option both scientifically, economically and socially. Xu Gang notes, "Of course, we should also keep in mind that the recent lockdown has caused living and medical difficulties to many citizens in Shanghai. This requires the government and all walks of life to think of more ways and optimize measures to help citizens as soon as possible."

Scientifically speaking, although many people infected with the Omicron variant only show mild symptoms, research data both at home and abroad nevertheless show that this mutant strain is quite fatal to elderly people, especially those who are not vaccinated. Causing high mortality and severe disease rates, Omicron is nothing like a “bad cold” as some claim it is. Taking the current round of surge in COVID infections in Hongkong as an example, more than 8,000 deaths have been caused by the virus since the beginning of this year. One latest study shows that the death risk of people over the age of 60 is 252 times that of people under 30. The median age of those dead is 86, and 96% of the deaths are people over 60. 

Based on his own analysis, Xu Gang points out that Shanghai is a city with the highest level of population aging in China. If Omicron spreads on a large scale in the city and no “drastic” measures are taken to curb it, it may cause a large number of severe infections or even deaths among the elderly population. Once this happens, we will have to bear unbearable family and social pains.

Moreover, if the pandemic breaks out and "dynamical zero-COVID" clearance is not achieved in time, once a large-scale surge takes place, the medical system could face the risk of breakdown. In that case, it may lead to major social problems that affect the psychological stability of various social groups.

Studies in Hong Kong also show that in the current round of the pandemic, the case fatality rate of the whole unvaccinated population has reached 2.87%, while that of those unvaccinated over the age of 80 runs at as high as 15.68%, However, the mortality rate of elderly people who have taken 2 or 3 doses of vaccine is reduced by at least 10 times. This indicates that continuously raising the vaccination rate among the elderly is an important part of epidemic prevention and control, which can go hand in hand with "dynamic zero-COVID" clearance. 

Xu Gang says that although some 84.35% of people aged 60 and over in China have completed the whole course of vaccination, there are still at least 40 million elderly people who have not. Moreover, the vaccination rate of the elderly in some regions remains low. At present, most of these regions that are in the normal mode of epidemic prevention and control may promptly take such measures as household vaccination to effectively strengthen whole-process basic immunization and vaccination for elderly people so that all those should be vaccinated are duly vaccinated. After going through this extraordinary period, Shanghai should also continue to press ahead with similar work, especially to raise the vaccination rate of booster jabs for elderly people.

From the perspective of economic and social development, Shanghai as an international metropolis is a hub of personnel mobility and transportation in China. If Shanghai fails to achieve "dynamic zero-COVID" clearance in the current round of the pandemic, it is very likely that the virus will spread to the Yangtze River Delta region and even the whole country through contacts among people and things, thus causing a worsening adverse impact on China's economic and social development. In the short term, Shanghai's economic and social activities and people's lives are indeed affected by the lockdown. However, for the country as a whole, lockdown in some areas can effectively prevent the spread of the pandemic and bring about normal production and life in wider regions. By all analysis, Shanghai must adhere to the "dynamic zero-COVID" policy. This is the only good and effective policy to ensure the stable and long-term economic development of the Yangtze River Delta region and the whole country. 



Author: Yu Taoran, Shanghai Observer