On March 17, 2022, General Secretary Xi Jinping presided over a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, stressing “the need to put the people and their health first and stick to the dynamic zero-COVID policy with scientific and targeted measures, so as to speedily curb the spread of the virus nationwide." Adhering to the general policy of "dynamic zero-COVID" is the responsibility which our Party shoulders for the people and their health. By summing up the experiences and lessons of epidemic prevention and control in foreign countries, especially in view of the long-term, complex and repetitive characteristics of the global pandemic, this author believes that the "dynamic zero-COVID" policy which we implement now is an inevitable choice that suits China’s national conditions, has a sound scientific basis and adapts to the inherent patterns of the pandemic. We must strengthen the awareness of the overall situation, the awareness of the long term and historical dialectical thinking, do not hesitate or waver, keep firm conviction, push forward work in a down-to-earth manner, and strive for the final victory over the pandemic in China.

It has been more than two years since the COVID-19 pandemic broke out. Different countries in the world have adopted highly different epidemic response policies. China has evolved from strict zero COVID in the early days of the pandemic to the current policy of “dynamic zero-COVID”, while Western countries have mostly changed from strictly controlling the pandemic to "living with the virus" and lifting all restrictive measures. As far as the effects are concerned, there is no doubt that China has realized the least COVID infections and COVID-induced human deaths in the past two years, which are the best results possible. 



We need to draw profound lessons from the policy of "lifting all restrictive measures" and abandoning the fight against the pandemic in foreign countries.

At present, a number of countries have adopted a policy of "full lift of restrictive measures" against the COVID pandemic. Their reasons may be summarized as follows: 1. there are not enough medical resources to support a strict epidemic prevention and control policy; 2. due to the pressure of social and cultural traditions, emphasis on "individual freedom" outweighs the comprehensive consideration of the pandemic situation; and 3. there is big pressure on economic growth, forcing the claim that Omicron has passed its peak and the adoption of “living with COVID”. 

In Britain, the government announced the implementation of a "live-with-COVID" plan at the end of February this year, while free COVID testing is scraped starting from April 1. In some British statistical reports, the daily new cases in Britain even fall to 0, but the fact is that even on the very last day of free COVID testing, there were 69,811 new infections and 191 new deaths across the country. According to the figures released by the British government on April 13, 2022, despite a continually falling COVID infection rate, the cumulative confirmed cases in Britain have nevertheless exceeded 21.67 million, putting enormous pressure on the public healthcare system. Many people suffer from long-term symptoms due to their infection with COVID, and one in five hospitalized patients with COVID are still unable to work after five months. Currently, inflection cases caused by the Omicron recombinant strain (XE) have been reported in Britain. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies of the British government believes that humans now face higher risk of the emergence of new mutant strains, and there is no reason to think that all these mutant strains are mild. 

Despite rich medical resources in Japan, the specific political and social environments in the country have also forced the Japanese government to choose to lift all restrictive measures against COVID. Starting from early April this year, the number of COVID infections in Japan remained around 50,000 a day, but fell below 40,000 on April 17. Thanks to its good medical resources, Japan has been able to keep the cure rate of patients with COVID at 92.3%. Currently, there are only 546,500 confirmed cases in the country. However, the case fatality rate in Japan runs at 0.4%, which poses a big threat to the lives of many children and elderly people. After epidemic prevention and control put huge downward pressure on its economy, South Korea closely followed Western countries to implement a "lying-flat" policy to lift all restrictive measures. Despite high vaccination rates (85.9% for complete vaccination and 62.7% for booster vaccination), 111,300 people were infected with COVID in South Korea on April 19, 2022, bringing the country’s cumulative total inflections to 16.583 million. The good news of higher vaccination rates is that though the total number of infections is huge, the mortality rate is only 0.12%. According to Baidu’s real-time COVID big data tracker, the COVID cure rate in South Korea stands at 5.8%.

Singapore took strict control measures in the early stages of the outbreak of the pandemic, as well as when the Delta variant struck. Even in the early days of the outbreak of Omicron, Singapore also chose to resort to the measures of tightening border control and postponing the relaxation of control restrictions. It was only recently that the Singaporean government has adopted more relaxed epidemic prevention measures because it believes that Omicron has passed its peak. However, it should be noted that Singapore has only taken limited relaxation measures. As Lee Hsien Loong mentioned in his speech on March 24, 2022, “With more interactions, we too may see another wave of cases.” At the same time, he believes that the virus will continue to evolve and “it is also possible that more aggressive and dangerous mutants will turn up…. If that happens, we may have to backtrack and tighten up our restrictions again.” The policy of lifting restrictive measures while staying ready to tighten up them again shows the contradictory thinking among the Singaporean government and society.



Adhering to the "dynamic zero-COVID" strategy is a realistic choice for China

Transiting from strict zero-COVID to the current "dynamic zero-COVID" policy is a scientific decision made by the Chinese government based on the development of the COVID virus, as well as on China's economic, social, vaccine research and development, medical resource allocation and other situations. In practice, we have held the bottom line of preventing the large-scale rebound of the pandemic by leveraging the “speed and accuracy” strengths of the dynamic zero-COVID policy. From the initial outbreak of the pandemic to the emergence of the Delta and Omicron mutant strains, we have effectively handled the outbreaks of clusters of Covid infections in various localities, maximally protected the lives of the people and safeguarded a good momentum of fast economic growth. Practice has proven that the dynamic zero-COVID policy suits China's national conditions, has a sound scientific basis and adapts to the inherent patterns of the pandemic. As a summary of existing experience and the inevitable choice for China's fight against the pandemic, it is the most economical and effective strategy of epidemic prevention and control for the country.

Firstly, adhering to the dynamic zero-COVID policy is the inevitable choice for China to implement the idea of “putting the people and their health first”. The biggest characteristics of the current round of the Omicron outbreak are its fast transmission speed, strong transmission power and high proportion of stealthy infections, all of which make it much easier for the pandemic to spread on a larger scale. If not controlled in time, it is bound to cause large-scale infections, thus leading to an overrun on medical resources and resulting in social chaos. China has a big aged population base. Due to their basic diseases and other reasons, more than 50 million elderly people in the country have not completed full COVID vaccination. Despite its lesser virulence, the Omicron virus is definitely not a “bad flu” as claimed by some, and it can still pose a serious threat to children, elderly patients, patients with serious basic diseases, and other vulnerable groups. Therefore, implementing the dynamic zero-COVID policy suits China’s current national conditions and demographic structure and represents the shouldering of responsibilities for protecting the people and their health. 

Secondly, adhering to the dynamic zero-COVID policy is the inevitable choice for China to better handle the relationship between "individual cities and wider regions". The essence of China's dynamic zero-COVID policy lies in “speed and accuracy”, with emphasis placed on quickly finding and accurately blocking the transmission chains, so as not to cause sustained virus transmission among communities. Physical isolation-based epidemic prevention and control is bound to have an impact on the economic development and people's life of a city. However, when the overall picture is considered, controlling the spread of the pandemic in one city can help to form a relaxed and stable environment for economic production and people’s life in wider regions over longer time spans. Therefore, the dynamic zero-COVID policy effectively balances the relationships between individual cities and wider regions and between short-term and long-term development, realizes greater prevention and control effects with the least cost, and minimizes the impact of the pandemic on China's economic and social development. This is also the "magic weapon" behind China's success in the past two years. China's GDP grew at a whopping 8.1% in 2021, which was a miracle in the world. 

Thirdly, adhering to the dynamic zero-COVID policy is an inevitable choice for China to cope with the long-term, complex and repetitive nature of the pandemic. It is a scientific policy formulated under China’s general strategy of "guarding against imported cases and a rebound in indigenous cases". The core idea of the policy is that infections should be eliminated once they occur when the virus can still pose a major threat to people's lives because the virus itself cannot be eliminated and infections cannot be stopped for the time being. The dynamic zero-COVID policy emphasizes scientificity, regularity, and effectiveness.

COVID prevention and control is a long-term, complex and repetitive task. It is imperative for us to adhere to the dynamic zero-COVID policy, whose specific implementation depends on medical technological capabilities. At present, the continuously mutating novel coronavirus has a stronger ability to evade the vaccines developed in China, so the dynamic zero-COVID policy plus physical isolation is the best choice for now. In the future, as vaccine research and development and drug treatment reach a high level, China will also keep its epidemic prevention and control policy in pace with the times, so as to minimize the impact of the pandemic on economic and social development and people's work and life.

Adhering to the dynamic zero-COVID strategy also puts forward high requirements for Party organizations and governments at all levels. In our work, we should proactively address the “urgent and difficult problems” facing the people, attentively listen their voices, well understand their needs, effectively ensure the production and supply of daily necessities for the people, and meet their medical needs. At the same time, we need to focus on the research and development of vaccines and drug treatment technologies, constantly improve our abilities, and attach importance to the vaccination of elderly people. In addition, on the premise of carrying out effective epidemic prevention and control, which is the most important work at present, we should also promptly consider the issue of orderly and effective resumption of work and production in the post-pandemic era, so as to ensure that economic work and public life can return to normal as soon as possible. 



Source: Wenhui Daily

Author: Li Jian, Research Professor, Institute of Urban and Demographic Studies, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences