China, US face global stakes, shared fates - 2024-12-11
In an increasingly complex world, the accumulation of crises seems unending. Tragic conflicts dominate the headlines, with the war in Ukraine serving as a stark reminder of the dangers of escalation. On Jan 20, Donald Trump will be officially inaugurated as the 47th president of the United States of America. As the world navigates these turbulent times, few issues will carry greater significance for global peace and prosperity than the evolution of US-China relations. This bilateral relationship is not only critical for the people of the US and China but also shapes the trajectory of humanity as a whole.
Since his election on Nov 5, 2024, Donald Trump has made several key nominations, signaling that China hawks will occupy prominent positions in his administration. These individuals prioritize containing China's rise and maintaining US preeminence in global affairs. This zero-sum game approach raises the risk of renewed tensions, including the possibility of a new trade war and a further deterioration in bilateral relations. Such a scenario could exacerbate existing crises, creating a ripple effect across the world.
However, Trump's leadership style and personal tendencies also offer glimmers of hope. Known for his love of personal negotiation and his penchant for striking deals, Trump has the capacity to pivot toward a more constructive relationship. His close associations with figures such as Elon Musk, who possesses a nuanced understanding of China's dynamics and potential, could influence a more balanced approach.
As the US and China face a pivotal crossroads, three scenarios could emerge: a new Cold War, strategic competition, or competitive coexistence. Among these, competitive coexistence is the most desirable outcome. This scenario envisions both nations recognizing their differences while finding areas of mutual benefit, thereby avoiding the pitfalls of outright hostility or unchecked rivalry. Achieving such a balance, however, will require deliberate and early efforts, particularly at the highest levels of leadership. A crucial step would be for Chinese and US top leaders to talk soon after Trump takes office.
The personal relationship between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Trump could prove instrumental in setting the tone for this critical partnership. The two leaders have met before and reportedly share mutual respect, which could serve as a foundation for renewed dialogue. While it is unrealistic to expect them to resolve all bilateral issues in a single meeting, they could prioritize areas of convergence. By collaborating on shared interests, they could begin rebuilding trust, a vital element for stabilizing the broader relationship.
Trust between the two nations is fragile and must be carefully cultivated. The US and China have differences, ranging from economic policies to global governance. Yet, both nations share a profound vested interest in preserving global stability. Indeed, their cooperation is essential to ensuring world peace. Early engagement between Trump and Xi could send a powerful message to their respective governments and the international community: that despite their differences, both countries are committed to constructive dialogue.
Their ability to navigate the complexities of US-China relations could significantly influence the global order in the coming years. A productive relationship between these two leaders could prevent the world from sliding into a new era of division and rivalry. Conversely, a failure to establish mutual understanding could lead to heightened tensions, with far-reaching consequences for global peace and economic stability.
While the stakes are high, it is important to remain cautiously optimistic. Trump's inclination toward deal-making and Xi's pragmatic approach to leadership offer a pathway to competitive coexistence. This outcome would require both sides to exercise restraint and adopt a long-term perspective. They must recognize that their nations' fates are intertwined and that collaboration on global challenges is not merely desirable but essential. By working together, the US and China can set an example for other nations, demonstrating that even in a world fraught with division, constructive engagement is possible.
In a time of mounting crises, the importance of this relationship cannot be overstated. The China-US relations will impact billions of lives and determine whether the 21st century is defined by collaboration or confrontation. Competitive coexistence offers a path forward, one that prioritizes peace, prosperity, and the well-being of all humanity. It is a vision worth striving for and one that both leaders have the power to make a reality.
The author is David Gosset, the founder of the China-Europe-America Global Initiative. He is the editor of China and the World in three volumes, and the creator of the Inspiring Series, a collection of books that aims to introduce China to the world.
Source: China Daily
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