How to view China’s total economy close to 100 trillion yuan - 2020-09-07
According to preliminary data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China had a gross domestic product of 99,0865 trillion yuan in 2019, approaching the 100 trillion yuan mark, with an average of 70,700 yuan per capita. The world today is undergoing major changes unseen in a century. China is in a critical period of achieving the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. It is not easy to achieve such results in 2019. So, how do we view such a beautiful report card?
Fully demonstrate the strong vitality and resilience of China’s economy
From the perspective of the development of the world economy, it is not easy to obtain this report card, which fully demonstrates the strong vitality and resilience of China’s economy.
Fr0m the perspective of the historical development of the world economy, we can more clearly see the true meaning of China's economic aggregate approaching 100 trillion yuan (14 trillion US dollars). The total US economy reached 14 trillion US dollars in 2007, and China's GDP in 2007 was 3.6 trillion US dollars, a difference of 4 times. The time when US GDP reached about 3.6 trillion US dollars was in 1983. In other words, GDP has increased from 3.6 trillion US dollars to 14 trillion US dollars. It took the United States 24 years, while China only used 12 years. For a developing country like ours, this is a remarkable achievement! If we extend the time appropriately, the first time that the US GDP reached 1 trillion US dollars was in 1970. In the same year, China's GDP was only 92.6 billion US dollars, and the US's GDP was nearly 11 times that of China. By 2019, China's GDP has reached 66% of the United States, and the United States is only 1.5 times China's. The gap is still there, but it has narrowed considerably. In the world today, only China and the United States have a GDP of more than 10 trillion US dollars. The combined GDP of France, Germany, Britain, and Japan in 2019 was only comparable to China. Therefore, it is said that China's total economic volume ranks second in the world, and it is not mixed with any water, and this situation has continued for a full 10 years. Since it became the second largest economy in the world in 2010, and by 2019 it was close to 100 trillion yuan, and China's position in the world economy has become more stable.
In recent years, the world economic situation has continued to slump, China ’s international trade frictions have continued to intensify, geopolitical threats have continued to deepen, and domestic economic and social development has entered a profound transition period. Under these conditions, China has still achieved the pre-set goal, which is invaluable. China's contribution to the world economy has become even greater, and China has become the backbone of ensuring world economic growth. On November 5, 2018, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in his keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the first China International Import Expo: "China will always be an important promoter of global openness and China will always be a stable source of growth for the world economy. China will always be a large and dynamic market for countries to expand business opportunities, and China will always be an active contributor to global governance reform! "China's economic aggregate reached nearly 100 trillion yuan, which is its biggest contribution to the world.
Fully reflect the Party’s ability to drive economic work
Judging from the development of the world economy in recent years, the fundamental reason for China's achievement in this regard is the correct leadership of the CPC Central Committee, which fully reflects our Party's ability to control economic work.
Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the long-term downturn in the world economy has not fundamentally changed. For the developing China, with the development of economy and society, the challenges and uncertainties are increasing. In 2010, China's economic aggregate surpassed Japan's, making it the second largest economy. However, since 2010 (10.45%), the growth rate has been decreasing year by year. In addition to the overall sluggish global economic growth, the main reason for this change is that long-term structural problems in the economic development of our country have begun to emerge. Extensive economic development methods that emphasize speed, total volume, growth rate and total quantity, but focus less on quality, efficiency, development, and structure, have limitations.
Since the 18th CPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping has focused on the long-standing problems of China's economic development and has continued to advance the overall layout of China's reform and development. In May 2014, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed for the first time during his inspection in Henan that the country should adapt to the new normal state of China's economic development stage and maintain a strategically ordinary mentality. And the Chinese economy enters the new normal, which just gives China new opportunities for development, that is, changing from high-speed growth to medium-to-high-speed growth, gaining new growth momentum from the continuous optimization and upgrading of the economic structure, and shifting from a factor-driven and investment-driven model to an innovation-driven model. On October 29, 2015, General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward an innovative, coordinated, green, open, and shared development concept in a speech at the second plenary meeting of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee of the CPC. In the report delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Xi Jinping made a clear and systematic proposal to implement the new development concept and build a modern economic system. China’s economy has been shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality growth, and is in a critical period to transform growth models, optimize the economic structure, and transform the growth momentum. The development of a modern economic system is the urgent task and the country’s strategic goal to address these challenges. It is precisely under the guidance of this scientific judgement that we adhere to the general tone of steady progress. In accordance with the requirements of high-quality development, we have effectively responded to profound changes in the external environment and achieved remarkable results. For example, we must coordinate and promote steady growth, reform, structural adjustment, people's livelihood, and risk prevention; further stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment, and expectations; we must strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and implement more large-scale tax and fee reductions; etc. The implementation of these major strategic deployments has made the Chinese economy stable and far-reaching despite the storms.
Continuously deepen reform, expand opening-up, and implement precise policies
The reason why China's economic aggregate has achieved close to 100 trillion yuan lies in continuously deepening reforms, expanding opening-up, and implementing precise policies. After the decision of the Third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee to comprehensively deepen the reform, various reform measures were launched in an all-round way, made multiple breakthroughs, and advanced in depth, and efforts were made to strengthen the systematization, integrity, and synergy of the reform. We expanded the breadth and depth of reform, launch more than 1,500 reform measures, make breakthroughs in reform in important areas and key links, and basically established the main framework for reform in the main areas. After the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, various reforms have been developed in depth, coordinated the overall layout of the "Five in One", coordinated the "Four Comprehensiveness" strategic layout, continuously promoted the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities, and promoted the construction of the "Belt and Road" to expand China's development space.
From the perspective of the growth structure of the three industries, the tertiary industry in 2019 increased by 6.9% over the previous year, the secondary industry increased by 5.7% over the previous year, and the primary industry increased by 3.1% over the previous year. In other words, China's economic growth had a solid material foundation based on continuous consolidation of the development of the real economy. Strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing continued to maintain rapid growth, and further supported the industrial economic growth. In 2019, the value added of strategic emerging industries increased by 8.4%, of which the growth rate of new energy industry was 14.9%, and the growth rate of new-generation information technology industry was 9.5%. The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 8.8% over the previous year, of which medical instrument equipment and instrumentation manufacturing increased by 13.5%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 6.7%, of which the electrical machinery and instrumentation industries increased by 10.7% and 10.5% respectively. The total import and export with countries along the “Belt and Road” increased by 10.8%, which was 7.4 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the country’s total imports and exports of goods. These digital changes reflect the comprehensive optimization of China's economic development factor structure, industrial institutions, supply and demand structure, and technical structure. This is not only the reason for the good report card, but also the basis for China to further achieve high-quality development.
Achieve more stable and sustainable development of our economy
It is necessary to look at the achievements objectively and calmly, sum up the positive and negative experiences, and achieve a more stable and sustainable development of our economy. Objectively speaking, China's total economic volume in 2019 is close to 100 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.1%, the highest growth rate among countries with per capita over 10,000 US dollars. However, in terms of economic aggregate, according to information released by the US Department of Commerce, the actual growth rate of the US economy in 2019 is 2.2%, adjusted by seasons and calendars to 2.3%, and the nominal GDP completed was 21.43 trillion US dollars. The volume still accounts for about a quarter of the world, more than 7 trillion US dollars higher than China, and it is still the world's largest economy. This shows that although we have made great progress, we need to work harder.
We should also clearly understand that although our economic aggregate is large, the per capita is not high. Judging from the growth rate of per capita GDP, China's per capita GDP was 178 US dollars in 1975, which has increased by nearly 60 times by 2019, which is a miracle. However, judging from the history of world economic development, Switzerland took the lead in 1975 to reach the world's first per capita GDP of more than 10,000 US dollars. The United States did this in 1978. China's per capita GDP has just surpassed 10,000 US dollars. It is indeed necessary to remain awake enough while being excited.
The economic aggregate of close to 100 trillion yuan is a symbolic indicator, and China needs to work harder to conquer the hurdle. It must be clear that the main contradiction of China's economic operation is still structural on the supply side. We must adhere to the main line of structural reforms on the supply side. We must adopt more reform methods and use marketization and the rule of law. We must “consolidate, strengthen, enhance, and smooth” our work, or focus on the five priority tasks of cutting overcapacity, reducing excess inventory, deleveraging, lowering costs, and strengthening areas of weakness. We must enhance the vitality of micro-subjects, improve the level of the industrial chain, and smooth the national economic cycle. The year 2020 marks the realization of a well-off society and the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan". The most fundamental thing is to implement the lines, principles, and policies formed since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference particularly emphasized the need to unswervingly implement the new development concept in order to promote high-quality development. It can be said that high-quality development has become the basic requirement for China's economic and social development in the future, and it is the key to make China's economic and social development leap from “quantity” to “quality”. This is a huge and complex system project that requires the participation of all levels, departments, and everyone, to transform the advantages of the system into the effectiveness of governance, to continuously advance the modernization of the national governance system and governance capabilities, and to jointly write a new chapter for China's economic and social development.
“The strong pass is like a wall of iron, yet with firm strides, we are conquering its summit.” As the world's largest socialist country and the largest developing country, China has always adhered to an independent development path, built an independent and complete industrial system, and launched a comprehensive system based on independence. The orientation is open to the outside world, achieving a high degree of unity in roads, systems, theories, and culture. We have reached a new level in the new era. In the future, we need to work harder and make unremitting progress towards the goal of realizing the great dream of the Chinese nation.
(Author: Zhang Xu, professor, Institute of Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
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