政府新闻

City News

由于预期美国将降息,上海黄金期货跃升至历史高点   2023-07-23

 


Shanghai Gold Futures Jump to All-Time High Amid Expected Shift to US Rate Cuts

The main contract of Shanghai gold futures surged to a historic high as investors predict the central bank of the United States will stop raising interest rates due to an economic downturn.

The futures contract rose to CNY463.18 per gram (USD64.50) intraday yesterday, the highest since its launch in 2008. It closed at CNY462.48 per gram, up 1.5 percent. Market participants said that gold futures may further rise in the future.

"We believe that [a further increase in gold prices] may happen when there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the market," The Paper reported, citing Jerry Chen, senior analyst at Gain Capital. After a streak of hikes since March 2020, the first cut is predicted to take place in the first quarter of 2024, he added.

Chen pointed out that gold prices tend to enter a new bull market during a transition from the end of a rate hike cycle to the start of a new one. This happened in 2007 and 2019, when gold prices rose significantly in anticipation of lower rates. In the past two rate-cut cycles, gold prices reached record highs, and this pattern could repeat.

The gold market will enter a rising cycle in the second half of this year, per Xu Ying, analyst at Orient Futures. Prices will fluctuate and move upward due to expectations of a recession and a shift to rate cuts in the States in the fourth quarter, Xu added.

The U.S. Dollar Index dropped below 100 as market insiders got less sure of new rate hikes before the past two adjustments, which boosted gold prices, according to Galaxy Securities. The Chinese brokerage predicts that the Fed is likely to stop raising the federal funds rate in the third quarter, and the economic and employment outlook will worsen in the fourth quarter. This will increase the anticipation of rate cuts in 2024, which should further support gold prices.

Central banks worldwide set off the latest gold fever in 2022. China’s gold reserves stood at almost 68 million ounces as of June 30, up 680,000 ounces from a month earlier, rising for eight consecutive months, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange.

Many central banks are worried about how geopolitical issues will affect inflation, interest rates, and market outlook, according to the World Gold Council. Therefore, they are likely to keep buying gold as a hedge against these uncertainties and changing investment conditions.

Source: Yicai Global

 


注册记者登录

 

 

记者点此免费注册 | 忘记密码

采访申请流程

06月08日 21315203 受理中
02月16日 21315167 已办结
01月26日 21315166 已办结

咨询申请流程

06月12日 02131545 已办结
05月12日 02131544 已办结
05月06日 02131541 已办结

查看全部 »

共性问题提示

Q: 问:如果想要迅速了解上海这座...
A: 答:请注册登陆本网站“今日上...
Q: 问:如果您想在上海进行采访,...
A: 答:(1) 请注册登陆本网站...
Q: 在哪里可以买到上海的地图?
A: 上海各大书店中均有出售,一些...